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THE DELPHI
TECHNIQUE
How to achieve a workable consensus
within time limits
by Lynn Stuter
The Delphi
Technique was originally conceived as a way to obtain the opinion of experts
without necessarily bringing them together face to face. In Educating for the
New World Order by Bev Eakman, the reader finds reference upon reference for the
need to preserve the illusion that there is "Lay, or community, participation in
the decision making process), while in fact lay citizens are being squeezed
out."
A specialized use of this technique was developed for teachers, the "Alinsky
Method" (ibid., p. 123). The setting or group is, however, immaterial the point
is that people in groups tend to share a certain knowledge base and display
certain identifiable characteristics (known as group dynamics). This allows for
a special application of a basic technique. The "change agent" or "facilitator"
goes through the motions of acting as an organizer, getting each person in the
target group to elicit expression of their concerns about a program, project, or
policy in question. The facilitator listens attentively, forms "task forces,"
"urges everyone to make lists," and so on. While she is doing this, the
facilitator learns something about each member of the target group. He/she
identifies the "leaders," the "loud mouths," as well as those who frequently
turn sides during the argument the "weak or noncommittal."
Suddenly, the amiable facilitator becomes "devil's advocate." He/she dons his
professional agitator hat. Using the "divide and conquer" technique, he/she
manipulates one group opinion against the other. This is accomplished by
manipulating those who are out of step to appear "ridiculous, unknowledgeable,
inarticulate, or dogmatic." He/she wants certain members of the group to become
angry, thereby forcing tensions to accelerate. The facilitator is well trained
in psychological manipulation. S/He is able to predict the reactions of each
group member. Individuals in opposition to the policy or program will be shut
out of the group.
The method works. It is very effective with parents, teachers, school children,
and any community group. The "targets" rarely, if ever, know that they are being
manipulated. If they do suspect this is happening, they do not know how to end
the process. The desired result is for group polarization, and for the
facilitator to become accepted as a member of the group and group process.
He/she will then throw the desired idea on the table and ask for opinions during
discussion. Very soon his/her associates from the divided group begin to adopt
the idea as if it were their own, and pressure the entire group to accept the
proposition.
This technique is a very unethical method of achieving consensus on a
controversial topic in group settings. It requires well trained professionals
who deliberately escalate tension among group members, pitting one faction
against the other, so as to make one viewpoint appear ridiculous so the other
becomes "sensible" whether such is warranted or not.
*******************************************************
DISRUPTING
THE DELPHI
Note: The
Delphi is being used at all levels of government to move meetings to preset
conclusions. For the purposes of this dissertation, "facilitator" references
anyone who has been trained in use of the Delphi and who is running a meeting.
There are three steps to diffusing the Delphi Technique when facilitators want
to steer a group in a specific direction.
1) Always be charming.
Smile. be pleasant. Be Courteous. Moderate
your voice so as not to come across as belligerent or aggressive.
2)
Stay focused.
If at all possible, write your question down to help you stay
focused. Facilitators, when asked questions they dent want to answer, often
digress from the issue raised and try to work the conversation around to where
they can make the individual asking the question look foolish or feel foolish,
appear belligerent or aggressive. The goal is to put the one asking the question
on the defensive. Do not fall for this tactic. Always be charming, thus
deflecting any insinuation. Innuendo, etc. that may be thrown at you in their
attempt to put you on the defensive, but bring them back to the question you
asked. If they rephrase your question into an accusatory statement (a favorite
tactic) simply state, "That is not what I stated. What I asked was... [repeat
your question.]" Stay focused on your question.
3) Be persistent.
If putting you on the defensive doesn't work,
facilitators often resort to long, drawn out dissertations on some 'off the
wall' and usually unrelated or vaguely related subject that drags on for several
minutes. During that time, the crowd or group usually loses focus on the
question asked (which is the intent). Let them finish with their dissertation or
expose. Then nicely with focus and persistence, state, "But you didn't answer my
question. My question was...[repeat your question.]"
Always be charming, stay focused and be persistent.
Never, under any
circumstance, become angry. Anger directed at the facilitator will immediately
make the facilitator the victim. This defeats the purpose which is to make you
the victim. The goal of the facilitator is to make those they are facilitating
like them, alienating anyone who might pose a threat to the realization of their
agenda. [People with fixed belief systems, who know what they believe and stand
on what they believe are obvious threats.] If the participant becomes the
victim. the facilitator loses face and favor with the crowd. This is why crowds
are broken up into groups of seven or eight, why objections are written on
cards, not voiced aloud where they are open to public discussion and public
debate. It's called crowd control.
It is always good to have someone else, or two or three others who know the
Delphi Technique dispersed through the crowd; who, when the facilitator
digresses from the question. will stand up and say nicely, "But you didn't
answer that lady/gentleman's question" The facilitator, even if suspecting you
are together, certainly will not want to alienate the crowd by making that
accusation. Sometimes it only takes one occurrence of this type for the crowd to
figure out what's going on. Sometimes it takes more than one.
If you have an organized group, meet before the meeting to strategize. Everyone
should know their part. Meet after the meeting to analyze what went right, what
went wrong and why, and what needs to happen the next time around. Never meet
during the meeting. One of the favorite tactics of the facilitator if the
meeting is not going the way they want if they are meeting measurable
resistance, is to call a recess. During the recess, the facilitator and his/her
spotters (people who wander the room during the course of the meeting, watching
the crowd) watch the crowd to see who congregates where, especially those who
have offered measurable resistance. If the resistors congregate in one place, a
spotter will usually gravitate to that group to join in the conversation and
will report back to the facilitator. When the meeting resumes. the facilitator
wi11 steer clear of those who are resistors . Do not congregate. Hang loose and
work the crowd. Move to where the facilitators or spotters are. Listen to what
they have to say, but do not gravitate to where another member of your team is.
This strategy also works in a face to face, one on one, meeting with anyone who
has been trained in how to use the Delphi Technique.
FROM A REPRESENTATIVE REPUBLIC TO A PARTICIPATORY DEMOCRACY
With the advent of education reform, the ensuing turmoil among the citizenry,
and the grassroots research that has been sparked there from, a consistent
pattern with respect to public participation and input has emerged, giving cause
for alarm among people who cherish the form of government established by our
founding fathers. Recent events, both inside and outside education have brought
the emerging picture into focus.
In the not too
distant past. The hiring of a consultant by the City of Spokane to the tune of
$47.000 to facilitate the direction of city government brought a hue and or from
the populace at large. Eerily, this scenario held great similarity to what has
bean happening in education reform. The final link came in the form of an
editorial comment made by
Chris Peck
regarding the "Pizza papers." The editorial talks about how groups of
disenfranchised citizens were brought together to enter into a discussion of
what they felt (as opposed to know) needed to be changed at the local level .
The outcome of the compilation of those discussions influenced the writing of
the city/county charter.
Sounds innocuous enough. But let's examine this a little closer, Let's walk
through the scenario that occurs in these facilitated meetings. First, about the
facilitator. The facilitator is hired to facilitate the meeting. While his/her
job is supposedly nondirective, neutral, nonjudgmental, the opposite is
actually true the facilitator is there to move the meeting in a preset
conclusion. This is done through a process known as the Delphi Technique,
developed by the RAND Corporation for the US. Department of Defense as a
psychological warfare weapon in the 50s and 60s. Comforting, no doubt. With this
established, let's move on to the semantics of the meeting.
It is imperative to the success of the agenda that the participants like the
facilitator. Therefore. the facilitator first works the crowd to cause
disequilibrium establishing a bad guy, good guy scenario. Anyone who might
not agree with the facilitator must be seen by the participants as the bad guy,
the facilitator the good guy. This is done by seeking out those who might not
agree with the facilitator and making them look foolish, inept, or aggressive,
sending a clear message to the audience that it if they don't want the same
treatment to keep quiet. The facilitator is well trained in how to recognize and
exploit many different psychological truisms to do this. At the point that the
opposition has bean identified and alienated, the facilitator becomes the good
guy; a friend; and the agenda and direction of the meeting is established
without the audience ever being aware of it.
Next, the
attendees are broken up into smaller groups usually of seven or eight people
each group with a facilitator. Discussion ensues wherein the participants are
encouraged to discuss preset issues, the group facilitator employing the same
tactics as the lead facilitator. Usually participants are encouraged to put on
paper their ideas and disagreements, these to be later compiled by others.
Herein lies a very large problem. Who compiles what is written on the sheets of
paper, note cards, etc.? When you ask the participants, you usually get, "Well,
they compiled the results." Who is "they?" "Well, those running the meeting."
Ohh! The next question is How do you know that what you wrote on your sheet
of paper was incorporated into the final outcome? The answer you usually get is,
"Well, you know, I've wondered about that, because what I wrote doesn't seem to
be reflected here. I guess my viewpoint was in the minority." And there you have
the crux of the s situation If you have fifty people in a room, each writes
his/her ideas and dislikes on a sheet of paper, to be compiled later into a
final outcome, each individual having no idea of what any other individual
wrote. How do you know that the final outcome reflects anyone's input? The
answer is you don't.
The same scenario holds when there is a facilitator recording your comments on
paper. But the participants usually don't question this, figuring instead that
their viewpoint was in the minority and thus not reflected.
So why have the meetings at all if the outcome is already established? Because
it is imperative to the continued wellbeing of the agenda that the people be
facilitated into ownership of the preset outcome. If people believe the idea is
theirs, they support it: If the people believe the idea is being foisted on
them, they will resist. Likewise, it is imperative to the continued wellbeing
of the agenda that the people perceive that their input counts. This scenario is
being used very effectively to move meetings to a preset conclusion, effectively
changing our form of government from a representative form of government in
which individuals are elected to represent the people. to a "participatory
democracy" in which citizens, selected at large, are facilitated into ownership
of preset outcomes, perceiving that their input resulted therein, when the
reality is that the outcome was already established by people not apparent to
the citizen participants.
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